Prof. Dr. Onur Başer, health economist, said: “52% of prescription drugs in Turkey come from abroad. The active ingredients of local medicines are also imported. The difference between the exchange rate applied by the Ministry of Health and the market rate exceeded 200%. “I expect it to be a very difficult time,” he said.
Professor in the Department of Economics at MEF University and also lectures on health economics and behavioral economics at the City of New York University (CUNY). Noting that he expects the dollar imbalance to have a negative impact on drugs, Dr Onur Başer warned that “no pharmaceutical company will sell major imported drugs due to drug deals reached. at fixed exchange rates “.
Evaluating the latest developments in the economy, Başer noted that he expects to go through a very difficult time as many essential commodities such as natural gas, wheat and medicines depend on foreign sources. Başer said: “Unless autonomous institutions protected by suprapersonal democracies are restored, the most reliable investments will remain instruments like dollars, euros and gold. Temporary money and exchange agreements brought in from other countries through personal connections are great opportunities for speculators. As the structural problems of the TL’s depreciation have not been resolved, they will collect a large amount of foreign currency in the market in temporary declines, ”he said.
The sale of imported drugs may cease
Stating that poor investments in city hospitals with guarantees for patients have wrecked a significant chunk of the healthcare budget, Başer said no pharmaceutical company would sell large imported drugs because of the deals on drugs concluded on fixed exchange rates. Başer said, “Currently, the Ministry of Health has fixed the euro exchange rate at 4.58 TL, which means the difference between the exchange rate and the market rate is over 200%. This difference was around 50 percent in previous years. Under these conditions, no imported pharmaceutical company will want to sell drugs to the Ministry of Health. For example; Diabetes drugs from imported drugs are currently not available on the market. Turkey is the first in the world among the OECD countries in terms of rate of diabetic patients. Since the active ingredients in the ingredients of children’s syrups and antipyretics among domestic drugs are imported, the increase in exchange rates began to cause problems with the transportation of domestic drugs. In managing the Covid, efforts to manage perception by playing on the numbers instead of preventing the spread of the disease have pushed Turkey backwards in the health field. 52% of prescription drugs are imported into Turkey. Most of our health care budget – almost 20 percent goes to city hospitals, ”he said. As a larger share of the total budget will be allocated to city hospitals each year, the share of drug purchases will decrease. When you add the increase in the exchange rate to this, both your budget goes down and the prices go up, and it will be inevitable that the amount of drugs on the market will gradually decrease.
shorten the US dollar supply
Stating that the supply of dollars will be reduced because Biden doesn’t want inflation to rise, Başer continued, “Investors don’t come to Turkey because there is a risk. The demand for TL is low, and when the supply of dollar decreases, the effect will be doubled and the rises will be very rapid. Even when the United States was pumping dollars into the market because of Covid, no investor came to Turkey because the necessary steps were not taken in the name of democracy and the law. These investors went to countries like Brazil. Brazilian Real was almost equal to TL. Now Real has become twice as valuable as TL. In the next step, when the United States reduces the money supply, it will find itself in a much more difficult situation. “
Rational suggestions have become obsolete
Emphasizing that economists comment on the rise of the dollar from a rational point of view, these recommendations may work in institutionalized economies, however. Başer said rational suggestions would not work since Turkey is a people-dependent economy. Başer went on to say: “Just as governments provide advice to correct irrational behavior, economists are wasting their time with rational proposals that will only be implemented then. There is no way out without elections and without Turkey returning to its autonomous institutions. Since no sane economist would want to work in this system and would not want to be associated with irrational behavior, a team selection to correct this situation awaits. We must not be desperate, the newly elected team will have a lot of work, but they will be very lucky. Especially in the first few years, Turkey will grow very quickly, because it took Turkey from the bottom. “